Search results for "time series model"
showing 3 items of 3 documents
A critical view on temperature modelling for application in weather derivatives markets
2012
Author's version of an article published in the journal: Energy Economics. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.09.012 In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature. The model contains seasonality, a low-order autoregressive component and a variance describing the heteroskedastic residuals. The model is estimated on daily average temperature records from Stockholm (Sweden). By comparing the proposed model with the popular model of Campbell and Diebold (2005), we point out some important issues to be addressed when modelling the temperature for application in weather derivatives market.
Quantifying Excess Deaths Related to Heatwaves under Climate Change Scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study
2018
Background: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse g…
Qualitative analysis of housing demand using Google trends data
2019
Big data analytics often refer to the breakdown of huge amounts of data into a more readable and useful format. This study utilises Google Trends big data as a proxy for an analysis of housing demand. We employ a qualitative method (fuzzy set/Qualitative Comparative Analysis, fsQCA), instead of a quantitative method, for our estimate and forecast. The empirical results show that fsQCA successfully forecasts seasonal time series, even though the dataset is small in size. Our findings fill the gap in the qualitative and time series forecasting literature, and the forecasting procedure herein also offers a good standard for industry.